Social Unrest in China

by Christian Göbel and Lynette Ong

Executive Summary:

Social unrest in China has been increasing at an alarming rate. Few incidents of public demonstrations, disruptive action or riots occurred in the 1980s, but 8,700 ‘mass incidents’ were recorded in 1993 alone. By 2005, their number had grown tenfold to 87,000, and estimates for the number of public protests in 2010 range between 180,000 and 230,000.

Social unrest in China has several striking characteristics, especially when compared with the Arab Spring:

* the increase in social unrest is not the result of an economic downturn;

* the increase in social unrest does not seem to have a negative impact on the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party’s one-party rule; and

* despite rising unrest, the death toll of such activities is not increasing significantly.

As these facts show, the political impact of social unrest in China is not straightforward. Thus it deserves close attention and thorough analysis.

The main purpose of this study is to shed light on the nature of social unrest in China, the grievances that are at the heart of social unrest and the counterpolicies launched by the Chinese government and to discuss the implications for EU policy. The study is based on English- and Chinese-language sources comprising official documents, newspaper reports, statistical yearbooks and scholarly publications as well as data and observations gathered in several weeks of fieldwork in Guangzhou (in February 2010), Shenzhen, Shenyang, Chongqing (in 2003 and 2004), Hefei (in December 2011) and Beijing.

The findings indicate that the rise of social unrest in China is not a sign of imminent regime collapse. Nevertheless, it bears risks that could severely disrupt China’s social stability and thereby the interests of the European Union. The EU should pay close attention to three phenomena: acts of repression undermining human rights in China, decreasing legitimacy at home that may prompt China to overreact in regional and international disputes, and surveillance technologies produced in Europe that might be applied to suppress dissent in China.